Economics of WW3
It will impact life across the world
WW3 appears imminent and perhaps overdue after 80 years of military buildup and tension, but wars have been fought before with peace prevailing every time.
This morning while checking for updates, I first thought back to my working theory covered yesterday of a nuclear incident in Ukrainian-occupied Russia. A major development in the Russia-Ukraine War continues to be my top concern, as reports of NATO equipment on Russian territory emerge. That’s followed closely by the manner in which an Iranian-led attack on Israel and Israel’s allies might manifest.
Analytic note: A nuclear false-flag scenario is extreme and specific, intended as a plausible example of how close we might be to nuclear war. What actually comes next may not be predictable. The Kremlin is undoubtedly in chaos, and the celebratory mood of some reporting from Ukraine seems premature.
Stories of the Russian border being nearly completely undefended are astonishing. Putin must either respond with overwhelming force, or he’s probably about to be replaced. Whoever follows, perhaps former President Medvedev, might be more dangerous.
My initial assessment when the Nord Stream pipeline attack took place almost two years ago was that Russia did it as a demonstration of capability. I later heard a theory that it absolved Russia of contractually stipulated payments owed for failure to deliver gas, which sounds plausible. German authorities are looking for Ukrainian suspects, but the mystery persists.
Having covered enough dark subject matter already this week, this Friday will be a continuation of my search for good news. I’m still hoping for benevolent visitors from outer space helping out, but until then, there are other reasons to be optimistic. I am, by the way, an optimist.
Sea Stories
After leaving the Navy, a myriad of options presented themselves - higher education, employment, travel, and so on. Based on my concerns about the direction of the world, my first thought was to go into farming. The countryside seemed a safer bet, and at least there would be food.
Electing for travel, I still spent some time on a permaculture vegetable farm in Japan. It was modeled after the teachings of Masanobu Fukuoka, who authored the book One Straw Revolution. He was a pioneer in rejecting modern industrial agriculture in favor of natural methods.
It was a great experience overall, but the farm owner was buying regular vegetables at the local grocery store and reselling them as organic for a profit just to get by. If the economics of simple things like growing vegetables are apparently broken, it raises questions about what a wartime global economy might look like.
Background
Trade restrictions were a significant contributing factor to the war between the U.S. and Japan in WWII. The U.S. tendency to respond to international crises with sanctions often appears to forget that.
The Russia-Ukraine War, if prolonged, could cut the global supply of many grains by 15% as reserves are depleted and yields continue to drop. If fighting returns to the Arabian Gulf, it could disrupt 20% of global oil and gas trade.
Worst Case Scenario
I’ve already laid out my case for the most likely way nuclear war begins today, but humanity has survived plenty of dire situations before.
Best Case Scenario
Wars, though devastating, do present opportunities for renewal. The end of WWII began an era of unprecedented abundance, at least in parts of the world. Besides war, supply chains face threats from climate change, extreme weather, and shifts in demographic patterns. The first globalist model of economy proved to have weak points, but a post-WW3 shift into interconnected regional systems could end up giving humanity survivability in supply chains.
Big Picture
Once the Russia-Ukraine War is stopped, experts estimate it will take 20 years to clear all of the unexploded ordnance. It might be worse if the war turns nuclear. Ukraine might provide food stability for the world, but it probably won’t be until the year 2050. Whatever is rebuilt after the current round of fighting ends is bound to be transformative. I really hope to see what it looks like.