Reporting on military activity generally includes a significant amount of spin, regardless of intention.
August 15 marks 79 years since the Japanese Emperor publicly announced surrender following the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and August 9 respectively. The initial report of the Hiroshima attack from the War Department was that smoke made a damage assessment impossible and more details would be released soon. Whether the attacks were justified is still a matter of debate, while nuclear war threatens yet again.
Ukrainian operations in both Kursk and Belgorod are particularly concerning. The optics of western-equipped Ukrainian soldiers fighting inside Russia has not even begun to become public in any significant way. Russia, with a sophisticated messaging campaign, could easily portray itself as the victim, especially if a nuclear incident took place on Russian soil. It would certainly side-step the issue of first strike doctrine.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to state the case for their expected retaliatory strike against Israel. In monitoring both situations, military reports are primary sources. Today’s edition will focus on military reporting.
Sea Stories
During Defense Secretary Mattis’ tenure, a Navy project he had previously overseen called Visual Information was expanded globally, mandating that ships send pictures and videos of any unsafe or unprofessional interactions with foreign warships and aircraft. It had been spurred by Iranian propaganda videos - in the modern era, news without video is not as compelling.
Assigned as ship’s Intelligence Officer in 2017, it would eventually occupy more of my attention than actual intelligence work. Most ships and aircraft do not have Public Affairs Officers or media specialists, but the intelligence personnel had cameras. It was convenience not conspiracy that got naval intelligence involved in news reporting.
In one instance, while serving as ship’s Intelligence Officer, my Captain had assessed an interaction with a Chinese ship as being safe but unprofessional before being overruled by the Commodore on a different ship hundreds of miles away. The Captain was criticized for what might have been an embarrassing report.
Later, while teaching Visual Information, I asked the Fleet Headquarters for the best examples of real-world reports from ships based in Yokosuka, Japan, where I was assigned. In one example, a U.S. ship was attempting to navigate in between a Chinese warship protecting a Chinese aircraft carrier. The report complained that the Chinese were blocking the way, but did not mention that U.S. warships protect U.S. aircraft carriers the exact same way.
Background
Combat camera has been a vitally important role in exposing the horrors of previous wars, but military reporting has traditionally been heavily influenced by political desire. In the digital age, the flow of information creates the same situation as ever, where military reporting can easily be seized upon to support a desired narrative. For example, our primary source of reporting on the Russia-Ukraine War in the West are NATO and Ukrainian militaries.
Worst Case Scenario
A false flag attack in the current era could sow enough doubt and division globally as to weaken alliances. Putin’s rise to power and emergence as a security figure came in response to apartment bombings he is suspected to have masterminded. That type of strong, militaristic leader can take extreme measures to protect themselves. Putin already survived one coup attempt.
Best Case Scenario
I often wonder how much nuclear saber-rattling is just bluster. For example, I imagine most North Korean public statements as being aimed at the North Korean population, assurances that Kim Jung Un is defending their interests. I even imagine this has forced many world leaders recently into the unfortunate position of needing to follow through on empty threats. Hopefully this causes enough hesitation to give us a window to find peace.
Big Picture
Iran and Russia likely had some an agreed upon joint response as a show of force and unity, until Ukraine moved into Russia. The fact that it has expanded to a second region of Russia exposes Putin’s weakness, making him dangerous. Of course, if he fell from power that might not be any better. During the Soviet coup against Gorbachev in 1991, it wasn’t clear who had nuclear launch authority.