Do Aliens Exist?

I don't know, but I think it's worth talking about.

Humanity will survive whatever comes, but the situation remains extremely volatile given the current military tension. An Iranian retaliatory strike remains expected, but numerous friction points persist.

So far this week, potential U.S. wars with Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea have been my topics. Not to be an alarmist, but it felt important to provide a synopsis of these situations before expanding upon any one of them. Taken together, the outlook certainly looks bleak. 

On Friday August 9, the most likely scenario is an attack against French interests, perhaps during the closing Olympic ceremonies, from which Russia has been excluded. Russia certainly took note when President Macron floated the idea of sending French troops to Ukraine. And while it bears remembering that France has plenty of imperial baggage, such an event would also put immense strain on the NATO alliance during the U.S. election cycle. Then again, the Olympic podium selfie is a major provocation on the Korean Peninsula. I really hope I’m wrong.

With all of that out of the way, I now hope that my readers will indulge me. Sometimes I prefer thinking about frivolous topics over WW3.

I had my own curiosities about aliens before joining the Navy, but throughout my career, I never had access to nor heard of anything beyond what is publicly available now. I was and remain unconvinced. Still, I am asked about the topic with frequency and feel as though I can contribute to scientific discourse.

The first Chief Intelligence Specialist I worked with gave me a phrase that I have often relied upon: “Never attribute to conspiracy that which can be explained by incompetence.” Placing this within the context of alien life forms, I don’t believe that there is a massive cover up. Instead I tend to think that as a species we’re simply not yet smart enough to understand what’s out there.

Sea Stories

One day following basic boot camp, I was going through Intelligence Specialist training.  We had finished our lesson early, but in typical military fashion we were not allowed to be dismissed. To kill time, the instructor offered to field questions from his class of budding intelligence professionals. Although only three or four years further along in his Navy career, to us he had experience. For many, curious about potential future assignments, this was a golden opportunity.

One hand shot up from a very serious Sailor who asked, “Are aliens real?” The room erupted with laughter and I might have chuckled to myself, but the student's expression remained serious. The instructor, embarrassed by the unexpected spotlight, shrugged it off by saying, “What? Man, I don’t know. Why are you asking me that?” That was the only professional conversation I witnessed about aliens throughout 15 years.

Unidentified objects in the sky is a different topic. A primary duty as ship’s Intelligence Officer was to identify nearby ships and aircraft. Lights in the night sky while at sea can be quite ambiguous and I could only identify about half of what I saw. I believed many sightings to be commercial drones used by nearby fishermen, but others had their own speculations. At times, we saw unidentified lights several nights in a row.

When reporting such encounters, we would be required to estimate basic details that proved nearly impossible. The lookout is an entry level position where a Sailor stands outside the skin of the ship, serving as its eyes and ears while underway. One lookout once changed the estimated distance from 50 feet to the length of a football field as I took the report. Altitude could frequently be discerned only in relation to cloud height - above or below. 

I once received a lookout’s report of a drone’s blinking light low in the nighttime sky some 1,000 yards from the ship. On the radar plot, I matched it to a commercial aircraft at cruising altitude 40 or so miles away, and reported this back to the lookout. Our lookout insisted that this couldn’t be as it was much closer—but the positions continued to correlate and they finally accepted the identification. Later, when asked to debrief the incident, I started by making sure everyone agreed that the Earth is not flat.

Another time, I had a lengthy conversation in the middle of the night with the Officer of the Deck, the person responsible for safe navigation of the ship. They described seeing a distant light, not blinking but fading in and out, hovering above the horizon, static in position. My response went unappreciated when I suggested it was a twinkling star.

Background

UFO sightings were investigated first from 1948 to 1969, in a program eventually known as Project Blue Book. There were 12,618 reported sightings. Suffice it to say that nothing conclusive came out of this nor any other official study.

In recent years, conclusive evidence continues to elude but the conversations have certainly changed. Highlights include the testimony of naval aviators, government release of previously classified videos, the May 2022 Congressional testimony by the former Deputy Director of Naval Intelligence and a subsequent July 2023 Congressional hearing.

Worst Case Scenario

Honestly, if we all go out like in the movie Mars Attacks, I’m not opposed. I’ve been considering the likelihood of nuclear war all week, no more worst case scenarios today.

Best Case Scenario

As a threat analyst I can say that we’re all still here. If these sightings are indeed craft being piloted by intelligent life, they do not appear hostile. Some experts speculate that their arrival might herald the arrival of tools to assist in humanity’s survival. I hope they are correct because I feel that humanity could use all the help it can get.

Big Picture

Humans have always looked up with wonder and curiosity. In the modern era, why would we be any different, simply trying to understand our place in the universe? The James Webb Telescope is a perfect example of this desire fulfilled and the results have been tremendous already. Technology’s ability to illuminate the nature of the universe appears more promising than ever.

Additional Information

Former Deputy Director of Naval Intelligence Congressional Testimony

July 2023 Congressional Hearing

60 Minutes Interviews with Naval Aviators

Avi Loeb - My Search for Proof Aliens Exist TED Talk