The War Between the U.S. and North Korea
The Forgotten War Continues
Although tensions have been rising for 20 years, the ceasefire has held. A new dynamic has emerged, further complicating any hope for permanent resolution.
In 71 years since the armistice ceased hostilities on the Korean Peninsula, little progress has been made towards a permanent peace treaty. North Korea continues to reject negotiations while expanding their nuclear and missile forces. South Korea and hosted U.S. forces have constantly improved their readiness for war. Generally, both sides continue to see each other as existential threats.
Last year, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea formed a trilateral defense initiative focused on North Korea. In June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a defensive pact. In July, for the first time since the 1980s, a U.S. submarine carrying nuclear armed missiles visited South Korea. After twenty years of tensions at an impasse, the dynamic is shifting.
Sea Stories
I was assigned as the ship’s Intelligence Officer onboard a Ballistic Missile Defense ship in February 2017. On February 13, 2017, North Korea conducted its first missile test in a series that culminated with their first ICBM launch that July. This and the accompanying North Korean rhetoric prompted the U.S. to tighten sanctions, and my ship spent months chasing small oil tankers suspected of breaking sanctions as part of an enterprise known as Enforcement Coordination Cell.
At one point, my ship hosted a journalist from the Wall Street Journal. As the Intelligence Officer, thankfully I was not required to speak with the media. He got some great pictures however, and wrote about a tanker that was clearly smuggling by obfuscating its identity. Since I had no idea if it was connected to North Korea, it felt like propaganda.
Background
On January 29, 2002, President Bush called Iran, Iraq, and North Korea the “axis of evil” in his State of the Union address. In December 2002, the White House announced readiness to use nuclear weapons against Iraq, and shortly thereafter the U.S. invaded in March 2003. North Korea and Iran, as well as Russia, China, and the rest of the world, watched as the U.S. invaded a sovereign nation without UN support.
The U.S. “shock and awe” campaign began with 320 Tomahawk missiles, the first of thousands of bombs and missiles. Less Tomahawk missiles were fired during the entire Gulf War; cruise missile technology had never been used before in this manner. The world took notes on how WW3 might begin, seeing Iraq as a rehearsal.
The global arms race escalated following the demonstrated U.S. power projection capability of destroying an enemy’s defenses from hundreds of miles away. Iraq, the 4th largest military in the world prior to invasion, was completely unable to defend itself against this onslaught.
From 1994 to 2002, North Korea test launched one missile. North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and began increased missile launches in 2003. The country conducted its first nuclear weapon test in 2006. The pace of both nuclear and missile tests have increased exponentially since Kim Jung Un took power in 2011.
Worst Case Scenario
North Korea has been almost completely isolated from the world yet consistently reliant upon aid as its economy is crippled by sanctions. Direct Russian support is reminiscent of the USSR support that enabled the beginning of the Korean War. Just as the Korean War saw Americans directly fighting the Soviet and Chinese military, renewed conflict may quickly embroil the entire Pacific.
Best Case Scenario
After the tragic earthquake that struck Japan on January 1, 2024, Kim Jung Un sent a message of sympathy to Japanese Prime Minister Kishida. The two countries don’t even have diplomatic relations and as best as I can tell, Japan did not directly respond. This illuminates the way in which peace might be achieved, with humanity gathering together as our world becomes increasingly inhospitable. Unfortunately, good faith measures do not seem to get as much attention as threats.
Big Picture
Even after seven decades, reunification of the Korean peninsula continues to be a dream deferred. As technology continues to improve at an increasingly rapid pace, North Korea remains stuck decades in the past falling farther behind. While suspicion and threats of war abound, a meaningful conversation on how to reintegrate 26 million people into modern life cannot begin.
Additional Information
Defense Intelligence Agency - North Korea Military Power Publication