The War Between the U.S. and China
It's likely to begin by 2027.
We are weeks or months from a direct war between the U.S. and China. This has been true for a long time.
During my 15 year career serving as an intelligence analyst in the U.S. Navy, I always monitored Pacific security. The situation between the U.S. and China was tense when I joined and has only escalated since. This potential conflict has been building for decades.
Presidents Truman and Eisenhower both threatened nuclear war with China between 1950-1953. A decade later, China built and tested a nuclear bomb of their own. While the modern American military has evolved in response to a variety of conflicts, the Chinese military and nuclear armament were built solely to fight America and its allies.
Three Quick Sea Stories:
Early in my career I worked for the top intelligence advisor to the Commander of the Pacific Fleet. This expert Intelligence Officer publicly speculated that the tension between the U.S. and China was progressing towards armed conflict. That type of discussion was unwelcome in 2014 and he was forced into retirement.
In 2023, the Commander of the Pacific Fleet went on 60 Minutes and openly discussed the prospect of war with China by 2027. He has since been promoted and now commands all military forces in the Indo-Pacific. That is how much the conversation within the military ranks changed in the past decade.
“Your job is to die slowly.” Last year, an Admiral in Japan said this to hundreds of U.S. Navy Sailors while talking about the need to fight even in the face of almost certain death. It was a surprisingly honest snapshot of the senior military planner’s mind. Casualties in such a war are expected to be greater than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. It remains an odd sentiment to share with members of a volunteer military facing recruitment challenges.
Worst Case Scenario:
Grim acceptance of a doomed future is not going to help solve any problems, yet the mood felt that way before I left the Navy. When ships were going through training and certification cycles, we were told to assume it was preparation for the imminent war.
This creates an environment where simple mistakes or miscalculations can escalate quickly. If another U.S. reconnaissance plane went down like in April 2001, what would happen today? Just like anybody might wake up in the middle of the night and stub their toe, we all might stumble right into a direct war between nuclear powers.
Best Case Scenario:
This isn’t a shooting war yet. There is still time to bring the tensions down before direct confrontation. A substantial obstacle remains political willpower, especially during the U.S. Presidential election cycle. China faces its own domestic pressure, making this a narrow path to peace.
Big Picture:
To understand the full context, we could go back through history to the Opium Wars and beyond. War itself is nothing new. What is especially new in the U.S.-China military build-up is the advanced armament, which includes anti-satellite missiles and directed energy weapons.
The conventional wisdom from a decade ago was that war with China is economic mutually assured destruction. In recent years, a substantial amount of trade has shifted from China, hurried along by COVID-revealed supply chain vulnerabilities. An increasingly isolated, authoritarian regime is never a recipe for peaceful outcomes.
The sides appear to be picked and there are dates penciled in on many calendars. That can all change, of course. Towards the end of my career, I was often shocked by how many of my peers believed the war was coming before 2027. Let’s hope this can turn into a really good joke about military intelligence.
Additional Information:
Youtube - Interview with Admiral Paparo
Defense Intelligence Agency - China Military Power Publication