How a Nuclear War Begins

One Possible Scenario

Given the theory of mutually assured destruction, there are few plausible ways to start a nuclear war. One scenario is detailed below.

On 17 August, Russia’s defense ministry warned of Ukrainian plans to conduct an attack on a Russian nuclear plant in Kursk. These claims were repeated by Russian state nuclear firm Rosatom. The Ukrainian attack, according to Russia, would be blamed on Russia as sabotage.

Analytic Note: No evidence has been shown. Ukraine denied any such plot as insane. Being so unbelievable, the story may be intended for Russian audiences. The Russian population has been repeatedly told that the West is threatening nuclear war. This would be just the latest in that narrative.

If Russia sabotaged their own nuclear plant and blamed it on Ukraine it’s possible that it would be just as mysterious as the Nord Stream attack. It would also make for a pretext to start a nuclear war, if blamed on NATO.

Following the Ukrainian invasion - the largest since WWII - members of the U.S. government have suggested further relaxing weapons restrictions, allowing Ukraine to strike even further into Russia. The announced Russian counterattack in Ukraine does not match up.

Like yesterday, a nuclear incident and/or possible false-flag attack remains my top concern.

Sea Stories

While temporarily assigned at the U.S. Naval War College, I helped out with a nuclear war game. Being so early in my career in naval intelligence, I was only given guard duty at locked door. Still, an Intelligence Officer with a more involved role shared a few observations from his perspective.

In one round, the leader of the opposition team was portrayed as ruining the results by conducting a nuclear attack unexpectedly early in the conflict. The criticism made sense, it seemed unlikely as the world would unite in opposition. It sparked office debates about the context in which a nuclear war could begin, which we never fully resolved.

Background

The Kremlin’s public statements since Ukrainian forces moved into Russia have focused on the West as being culpable. Putin has not directly mentioned nuclear weapons. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been used routinely as a way for Russia to stoke nuclear fears. News of a fire there broke out on August 11, but Kursk could serve Russian purposes much better.

Worst Case Scenario

Information operations to shape such an attack could be profoundly impactful. Russia has been portrayed as inept, but Russia had previously been respected as being capable of sophisticated media campaigns. A sabotage, publicly declared as a NATO attack, could be the pretext for a nuclear war.

Best Case Scenario

This might be limited to nuclear blackmail, only words on paper. Putin has been waiting for a moment to reverse the portrayal of Russia as aggressor. If Russia continues to emphasize this supposed plot in official announcements, it will be a threat to monitor. Forcing a quick ceasefire may be favorable to Ukraine gaining further territory.

Big Picture

More powerful nuclear weapons exist today while fewer and fewer have memory of their devastating power. As nations are moving towards war, an important but uncomfortable question is whether or not WW3 will be a nuclear war.

Additional Information

Reuters - Report on Kursk Power Plant