Weekend Update
Predictable Provocations
Russia-Ukraine escalations continue publicly over the U.S. holiday weekend, likely timed to maximize media attention.
On 1 September, days after Foreign Minister Lavrov clarified Russian nuclear doctrine, his Deputy announced the policy may be revised in response to alleged Western escalation. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov on Sunday claimed that the West is “going too far” in current support for Ukraine.
In response to last week’s large scale Russian attacks, Ukraine executed its own airstrikes overnight, some to Moscow and others even further into Russia. Ukraine continues to lose ground in its east, but Russia appears unable to repel advances into its own territory.
In the midst of the U.S. holiday weekend, both attacks and rhetoric are likely timed intentionally to maximize attention on the crisis and influence international support.
Sea Stories
Standing watch is a fundamental part of naval service, learned from the very first days in every Sailor’s career. The concept is discussed as a solemn responsibility across the military, with good cause. Thank you to those who stand the watch this holiday weekend.
Background
Holidays have been used throughout the history of war as moments of opportunity, with combatants attempting to catch opponents in a state of relative unpreparedness. Attacks timed to sour festivities have an additional benefit of demoralizing an adversary.
In recent years, this has famously manifested in the form of 4th of July missile launches and winter holiday threats from North Korea. Similarly, the public discussion of Russian nuclear policy is likely timed intentionally to draw attention during the U.S. holiday weekend.
Announcing a lower threshold for nuclear weapon use would send a strong message to the West. Hawks within Russia have proposed such measures since the war began.
Best Case Scenario
The statements, while problematic for U.S. policymakers, suggest a controlled narrative rather than desperation. Short of actual nuclear war, long term Russian goals may be breaking Western support or finding a more advantageous negotiating position.
Big Picture
Publicly, the first Russian comments on nuclear weapons since Ukrainian forces moved into their territory were to clarify the existing doctrine. A subsequent update to that doctrine appears to have Kremlin support, even if the proposal was made by a lower-level official.
Russian President Putin announced in June that nuclear doctrine is a “living instrument.” However, no policy changed and no timeframe for a potential revision was provided. Today’s announcements had little substance, but Russian officials may use the Ukrainian attacks to legitimize their argument.
Additional Information
Reuters - Nuclear Policy Article